Monday, November 14, 2011

Would the world have been better off if World War I ended in a negotiated peace instead of an Allied victory?

That would have been the likely result had the United States stayed out of the war, as WWI was a stalemate for a few years prior to American entry into that war. At some point, the European powers would have had to agree to a negotiated peace, possibly a status quo antebellum peace. With a negotiated peace, Central Europe would not have been destabilized, which paved the way for the rise of Hitler. Since the Allies would not have won the war, they would not be able to break their agreement with Italy, which might have prevented the rise to power of Mussolini. If America had stayed out of the war, a desperate Germany might have decided not to send Lenin into Russia in an attempt to win the war before American troops could arrive. Without Lenin, Russia probably might have developed into a democracy, which certainly would have been better than a Communist dictatorship. The disastrous result of World War I for France would have probably greatly reduced the strength of revanchism (the militarist movement in France that wanted a war to reclaim Alsace-Lorraine from Germany). Likewise, might the disaster that resulted from an act of Serbian terrorism have discouraged future acts of terrorism against the Austrian Empire? With a negotiated peace, might the Ottoman Empire have continued to exist in the Middle East and might that have led to less violence in the Middle East?

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